In January 2016 the Australian dollar fell to just above $US0.68, its lowest level since 2009 and down 38% from its 2011 high. But since then, after a brief rebound, it has been stuck in a range between $US0.72 and $US0.78, defying our expectations for a decline. This note looks at why the $A has […]
What is the equity risk premium? To compensate for their greater short-term volatility and risk of loss, shares should provide a return differential over a ‘risk free’ asset like government bonds over the long term. This return differential is referred to as the equity risk premium (ERP) and used to be thought of as being […]
Despite numerous geopolitical threats (Eurozone elections, tensions between the US and China, North Korea, etc.), worries about the demise of the so-called "Trump trade" and shares being overbought and due for a correction at the start of the year, share markets have proved to be remarkably resilient with only a minor pull back into their […]
The basics of successful investing are timeless and some investors (often the best) have a knack of encapsulating these into a sentence or two that brings them to life in a way that’s easy to understand. Over the last few years I have written two insights on investment quotes I find useful (see “21 great […]
“It’s not what you own that gets you into trouble, but what you owe.” Excessive debt tends to be at the centre of most scare stories regarding the investment outlook – whether they relate to China, public debt in developed countries, corporate debt in the US or Australian household debt. The standard debt related scare […]
The cooling in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets evident in late 2015 in response to macro prudential tightening deployed by APRA has proved ephemeral. Price gains have reaccelerated and auction clearance rates & lending to property investors have rebounded. Over the last five years Sydney dwelling prices have risen a ridiculous 73% and Melbourne […]
The long running soap opera around whether the Eurozone will break up is now into its eighth year! In 2015 all the focus was on the latest Greek tantrum and last year the big fear was that the populist/nationalist Brexit vote and Trump victory would lead to a surge in support for populist parties across […]
For the last few years we have heard constant predictions of a recession in Australia as the mining boom turned to bust and a housing bust was seen to follow. Some even went so far as to say that an imminent recession was “unavoidable”. Those fears intensified after the September quarter GDP data showed the […]
A year ago there was a long global worry list and high on that list was China. A nearly 50% collapse in Chinese shares, uncertainty about the Renminbi, slowing Chinese growth, fears of a massive oversupply of residential property and uncertainty about the intentions of Chinese policy makers had left many convinced China was heading […]
It’s now a decade since the first problems with US sub-prime mortgages started to appear and nearly eight years since share markets hit their global financial crisis lows. From those lows in 2009 lows US shares are up 239%, global shares are up 167% and Australian shares are up 80% (held back by relatively higher […]
